KA Akureyri 0–1 Breidablik: Result & Stats

KA Akureyri

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Breidablik

A. Bjarnason 13'

5/11/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 6Greifavöllurinn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

KA Akureyri42%

×Draw23%

Breidablik35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KA AkureyriExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.58

KA Akureyri

1.74

Breidablik

1.58

KA Akureyri creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.78

creates per match

1.74

1.43

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

KA Akureyri

1.78

Breidablik

1.74

allows per match

KA Akureyri

1.43

Breidablik

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KA Akureyri+0.00on par

Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KA Akureyri ↓

Breidablik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

KA Akureyri or draw

65%

KA Akureyri or Breidablik

77%

Draw or Breidablik

58%

Winning margin

KA Akureyri wins by 2+

22%

Breidablik wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

KA Akureyri 1+ goals

82%

KA Akureyri 2+ goals

52%

KA Akureyri 3+ goals

25%

Breidablik 1+ goals

79%

Breidablik 2+ goals

47%

Breidablik 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

KA Akureyri (draw refunded)

54%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KA Akureyri at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

Breidablik away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KA Akureyri attack 1.78 + Breidablik defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.74

Breidablik attack 1.74 + KA Akureyri defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

KA Akureyri scores more

42%

level

23%

Breidablik scores more

35%

KA Akureyri at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KA Akureyri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Bjarnason↳ H. Gunnlaugsson

31'

I. Arnason

46'

K. Steindorsson← H. Gunnlaugsson

64'

J. S. Edmundsson← D. Valsson

64'

H. Steingrimsson← V. Kjartansson

69'

K. Steindorsson

76'

A. Thorsteinsson← O. Omarsson

78'

B. Baldvinsson← G. Hrafnkelsson

78'

J. Arnason← A. Sigurgeirsson

78'

D. Obbekjaer← A. Yeoman

80'

V. Einarsson

90+1'

V. Gautason← A. Bjarnason

KA

Breidablik

1

Einarsson

30

▼

Yeoman

7

A

▼

Gunnlaugs

21

Margeirss

4

Orrason

11

⚽

▼

Bjarnason

8

Einarsson

6

Jonsson

9

▼

13

77

13

5

30

▼

3

8

4

28

25

▼

Valsson

77

Adalstein

9

▼

Kjartanss

11

▼

Sigurgeir

Manager: Hallgrímur Jónasson

64'▲J. S. Edmundsson←▼D. Valsson

64'▲H. Steingrimsson←▼V. Kjartansson

78'▲B. Baldvinsson←▼G. Hrafnkelsson

78'▲J. Arnason←▼A. Sigurgeirsson

KA Akureyri substitutes

12Tonning2Baldvinsson7Edmundsson10Steingrimsson22Steingrimsson23Petursson26Stole29Arnason44Saevarsson

Manager: Halldór Árnason

46'▲K. Steindorsson←▼H. Gunnlaugsson

76'▲A. Thorsteinsson←▼O. Omarsson

78'▲D. Obbekjaer←▼A. Yeoman

90+1'▲V. Gautason←▼A. Bjarnason

Breidablik substitutes

12Bragason33Snaeholm2Obbekjaer10Steindorsson15Thorsteinsson23Kristinsson24Gautason29Hallsson31Gunnleifsson

Úrvalsdeild: KA Akureyri 0–1 Breidablik

Breidablik beat KA Akureyri 1-0 in Úrvalsdeild on May 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Bjarnason (13').

The match was played at Greifavöllurinn in Akureyri.

KA Akureyri vs Breidablik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: KA Akureyri 0–1 Breidablik