Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Şırnak İdmanyurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
10/10/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundKırşehir Ahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor83%
×Draw11%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
3.30
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
0.86

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 284% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.60
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
0.33

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.40
Şırnak İdmanyurdu
4.00

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Şırnak İdmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Şırnak İdmanyurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
94%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Şırnak İdmanyurdu
89%
Draw or Şırnak İdmanyurdu
17%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
65%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
96%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
83%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
62%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 1+ goals
58%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 2+ goals
21%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
93%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Şırnak İdmanyurdu away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 2.60 + Şırnak İdmanyurdu defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.30

Şırnak İdmanyurdu attack 0.33 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
83%
level
11%
Şırnak İdmanyurdu scores more
6%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Şırnak İdmanyurdu

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Şırnak İdmanyurdu 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi in Kırşehir.