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Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Nevşehir Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Nevşehir Belediyespor
Nevşehir Belediyespor
9/12/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundAhi Evran Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor66%
×Draw19%
Nevşehir Belediyespor16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.30
Nevşehir Belediyespor
1.03

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 123% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.60
Nevşehir Belediyespor
0.67

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.40
Nevşehir Belediyespor
2.00

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Nevşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Nevşehir Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
84%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Nevşehir Belediyespor
81%
Draw or Nevşehir Belediyespor
34%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
43%
Nevşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
90%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
67%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
40%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
64%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
28%
Nevşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
81%
Nevşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Nevşehir Belediyespor away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 2.60 + Nevşehir Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Nevşehir Belediyespor attack 0.67 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
66%
level
19%
Nevşehir Belediyespor scores more
16%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırşehir Belediyespor 3–2 Nevşehir Belediyespor

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Nevşehir Belediyespor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Ahi Evran Stadı in Kırşehir.