Kırşehir Belediyespor 0–0 İskenderunspor

Kırşehir Belediyespor

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

İskenderunspor

10/19/2022

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKırşehir Ahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor62%

×Draw19%

İskenderunspor19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kırşehir BelediyesporExpected goals in this matchİskenderunspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.20

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.30

İskenderunspor

1.20

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 92% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor

2.60

İskenderunspor

1.00

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor

1.40

İskenderunspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par

İskenderunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

İskenderunspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw

81%

Kırşehir Belediyespor or İskenderunspor

81%

Draw or İskenderunspor

38%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+

39%

İskenderunspor wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals

90%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals

67%

Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals

40%

İskenderunspor 1+ goals

70%

İskenderunspor 2+ goals

34%

İskenderunspor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)

77%

İskenderunspor (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

İskenderunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 2.60 + İskenderunspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

İskenderunspor attack 1.00 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more

62%

level

19%

İskenderunspor scores more

19%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırşehir Belediyespor 0–0 İskenderunspor

Kırşehir Belediyespor and İskenderunspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 19, 2022.

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi in Kırşehir.

Kırşehir Belediyespor vs İskenderunspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Türkiye Kupası: Kırşehir Belediyespor 0–0 İskenderunspor