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Kırşehir Belediyespor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırşehir Belediyespor
Kırşehir Belediyespor
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKırşehir Ahi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kırşehir Belediyespor53%
×Draw21%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.12
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.45

Kırşehir Belediyespor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
2.60
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.50

allows per match

Kırşehir Belediyespor
1.40
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.63

finishing

Kırşehir Belediyespor+0.00on par
Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırşehir Belediyespor ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kırşehir Belediyespor or draw
74%
Kırşehir Belediyespor or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
79%
Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
47%

Winning margin

Kırşehir Belediyespor wins by 2+
31%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kırşehir Belediyespor 1+ goals
88%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 2+ goals
62%
Kırşehir Belediyespor 3+ goals
35%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
77%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
42%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kırşehir Belediyespor (draw refunded)
67%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırşehir Belediyespor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırşehir Belediyespor attack 2.60 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Kırşehir Belediyespor defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kırşehir Belediyespor scores more
53%
level
21%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
26%

Kırşehir Belediyespor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kırşehir Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırşehir Belediyespor 3–2 Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Kırşehir Belediyespor beat Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kırşehir Ahi in Kırşehir.