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Kırklarelispor vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu — League #205 2026

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
2/11/2024League #205League #205 · Beyaz - 25Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırklarelispor39%
×Draw45%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
0.67
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.33

Kırklarelispor creates 103% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
0.67
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.33

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.33
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
0.67

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Under
  • Under92
  • Over8

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

86%No
  • No86
  • Yes14

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–037%
0–112%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (37%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
63%37%1.5
26%74%2.5
8%92%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
84%
Kırklarelispor or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
55%
Draw or Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
61%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
11%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
49%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
15%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
3%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1+ goals
28%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 2+ goals
4%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
71%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
6%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 0.67 + Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu attack 0.33 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
39%
level
45%
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu scores more
16%

Kırklarelispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırklarelispor vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu

Kırklarelispor beat Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu 1-0 in League #205 on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.