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Kırklarelispor vs Uşak Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Uşak Spor
Uşak Spor
9/25/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kırklarelispor76%
×Draw16%
Uşak Spor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
2.34
Uşak Spor
0.63

Kırklarelispor creates 271% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Uşak Spor
0.33

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.92
Uşak Spor
3.00

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Uşak Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Uşak Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
92%
Kırklarelispor or Uşak Spor
84%
Draw or Uşak Spor
24%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
52%
Uşak Spor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
90%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
67%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
41%
Uşak Spor 1+ goals
47%
Uşak Spor 2+ goals
13%
Uşak Spor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
90%
Uşak Spor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Uşak Spor away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Uşak Spor defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.34

Uşak Spor attack 0.33 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
76%
level
16%
Uşak Spor scores more
8%

Kırklarelispor at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırklarelispor vs Uşak Spor

Kırklarelispor beat Uşak Spor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2018.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.