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Kırklarelispor vs Osmaniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Osmaniyespor
Osmaniyespor
10/27/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kırklarelispor68%
×Draw20%
Osmaniyespor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
1.99
Osmaniyespor
0.68

Kırklarelispor creates 193% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Osmaniyespor
0.43

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.92
Osmaniyespor
2.29

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Osmaniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
88%
Kırklarelispor or Osmaniyespor
80%
Draw or Osmaniyespor
32%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
43%
Osmaniyespor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
86%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
59%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
32%
Osmaniyespor 1+ goals
49%
Osmaniyespor 2+ goals
15%
Osmaniyespor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
85%
Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Osmaniyespor defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.99

Osmaniyespor attack 0.43 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
68%
level
20%
Osmaniyespor scores more
12%

Kırklarelispor at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırklarelispor vs Osmaniyespor

Osmaniyespor beat Kırklarelispor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.