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Kırklarelispor vs Kocaelispor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kocaelispor
Kocaelispor
2/25/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 3Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kırklarelispor46%
×Draw25%
Kocaelispor29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
1.59
Kocaelispor
1.21

Kırklarelispor creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Kocaelispor
1.50

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.92
Kocaelispor
1.50

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Kocaelispor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Kocaelispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
71%
Kırklarelispor or Kocaelispor
75%
Draw or Kocaelispor
54%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
24%
Kocaelispor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
80%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
47%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
21%
Kocaelispor 1+ goals
70%
Kocaelispor 2+ goals
34%
Kocaelispor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
61%
Kocaelispor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Kocaelispor away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Kocaelispor defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Kocaelispor attack 1.50 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
46%
level
25%
Kocaelispor scores more
29%

Kırklarelispor at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kırklarelispor vs Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor beat Kırklarelispor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on February 25, 2025.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.