Kırklarelispor 3–3 Bodrum FK: Result & Stats

Kırklarelispor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 3

Bodrum FK

1/8/2025

Türkiye Kupası · Group Stage - 1Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kırklarelispor42%

×Draw24%

Bodrum FK34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KırklarelisporExpected goals in this matchBodrum FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.46

Kırklarelispor

1.65

Bodrum FK

1.46

Kırklarelispor creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.69

creates per match

2.00

0.92

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Kırklarelispor

1.69

Bodrum FK

2.00

allows per match

Kırklarelispor

0.92

Bodrum FK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Bodrum FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw

66%

Kırklarelispor or Bodrum FK

76%

Draw or Bodrum FK

58%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

22%

Bodrum FK wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

81%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

49%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

23%

Bodrum FK 1+ goals

77%

Bodrum FK 2+ goals

43%

Bodrum FK 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

55%

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Bodrum FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bodrum FK attack 2.00 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more

42%

level

24%

Bodrum FK scores more

34%

Kırklarelispor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff