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Kırklarelispor vs Adana Demirspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırklarelispor
Kırklarelispor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
12/19/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırklarelispor66%
×Draw22%
Adana Demirspor12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırklarelispor
1.84
Adana Demirspor
0.63

Kırklarelispor creates 192% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kırklarelispor
1.69
Adana Demirspor
0.33

allows per match

Kırklarelispor
0.92
Adana Demirspor
2.00

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw
88%
Kırklarelispor or Adana Demirspor
78%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
34%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+
40%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals
84%
Kırklarelispor 2+ goals
55%
Kırklarelispor 3+ goals
28%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
47%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
13%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)
85%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more
66%
level
22%
Adana Demirspor scores more
12%

Kırklarelispor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırklarelispor 2–0 Adana Demirspor

Kırklarelispor beat Adana Demirspor 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2024.

The match was played at Kırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu in Kırklareli.