Kırklarelispor 1–0 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

Kırklarelispor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

9/25/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundKırklareli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kırklarelispor71%

×Draw21%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KırklarelisporExpected goals in this match1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.46

Kırklarelispor

1.84

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

0.46

Kırklarelispor creates 300% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

1.69

creates per match

0.00

0.92

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kırklarelispor

1.69

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

0.00

allows per match

Kırklarelispor

0.92

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kırklarelispor+0.00on par

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırklarelispor ↓

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kırklarelispor or draw

91%

Kırklarelispor or 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

79%

Draw or 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor

29%

Winning margin

Kırklarelispor wins by 2+

43%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kırklarelispor 1+ goals

84%

Kırklarelispor 2+ goals

55%

Kırklarelispor 3+ goals

28%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 1+ goals

37%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 2+ goals

8%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Kırklarelispor (draw refunded)

89%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırklarelispor at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırklarelispor attack 1.69 + 1954 Kelkit Belediyespor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.84

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor attack 0.00 + Kırklarelispor defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kırklarelispor scores more

71%

level

21%

1954 Kelkit Belediyespor scores more

9%

Kırklarelispor at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kırklarelispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff