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Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu vs Manisa F.K. — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Manisa F.K.
Manisa F.K.
Y. Yuce 90', 14'
9/16/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundBaşpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu47%
×Draw22%
Manisa F.K.32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
2.00
Manisa F.K.
1.63

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.00
Manisa F.K.
1.50

allows per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.75
Manisa F.K.
3.00

finishing

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu+0.00on par
Manisa F.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu ↓

Manisa F.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or draw
68%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or Manisa F.K.
78%
Draw or Manisa F.K.
53%

Winning margin

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu wins by 2+
26%
Manisa F.K. wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 1+ goals
86%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2+ goals
59%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3+ goals
32%
Manisa F.K. 1+ goals
80%
Manisa F.K. 2+ goals
48%
Manisa F.K. 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu (draw refunded)
59%
Manisa F.K. (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Manisa F.K. away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu attack 1.00 + Manisa F.K. defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Manisa F.K. attack 1.50 + Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu scores more
47%
level
22%
Manisa F.K. scores more
32%

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Y. Yuce
90'
Y. Yuce
Kırıkkale
Manisa
Niyazi Güney
Manager: Niyazi Güney
Taner Taşkın
Manager: Taner Taşkın

Match Recap: Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu vs Manisa F.K.

Manisa F.K. beat Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 16, 2025.

Goals: Y. Yuce (14', 90').

The match was played at Başpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı in Kırıkkale.