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Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu vs Gölcükspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gölcükspor
Gölcükspor
10/14/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 1st RoundBaşpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu34%
×Draw23%
Gölcükspor42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.50
Gölcükspor
1.68

Gölcükspor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.00
Gölcükspor
1.60

allows per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.75
Gölcükspor
2.00

finishing

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu+0.00on par
Gölcükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu ↓

Gölcükspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or draw
58%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or Gölcükspor
77%
Draw or Gölcükspor
66%

Winning margin

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu wins by 2+
16%
Gölcükspor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 1+ goals
78%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2+ goals
44%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3+ goals
19%
Gölcükspor 1+ goals
81%
Gölcükspor 2+ goals
50%
Gölcükspor 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu (draw refunded)
45%
Gölcükspor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Gölcükspor away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu attack 1.00 + Gölcükspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gölcükspor attack 1.60 + Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu scores more
34%
level
23%
Gölcükspor scores more
42%

Gölcükspor at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gölcükspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2–1 Gölcükspor

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu beat Gölcükspor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Başpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı in Kırıkkale.