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Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu vs Gaziantep FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Gaziantep FK
Gaziantep FK
9/26/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBaşpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu29%
×Draw23%
Gaziantep FK47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.77

Gaziantep FK creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.00
Gaziantep FK
1.80

allows per match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu
1.75
Gaziantep FK
1.70

finishing

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu+0.00on par
Gaziantep FK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu ↓

Gaziantep FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or draw
53%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu or Gaziantep FK
77%
Draw or Gaziantep FK
71%

Winning margin

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu wins by 2+
13%
Gaziantep FK wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 1+ goals
74%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 2+ goals
39%
Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 3+ goals
15%
Gaziantep FK 1+ goals
83%
Gaziantep FK 2+ goals
53%
Gaziantep FK 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu (draw refunded)
38%
Gaziantep FK (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Gaziantep FK away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu attack 1.00 + Gaziantep FK defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gaziantep FK attack 1.80 + Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu scores more
29%
level
23%
Gaziantep FK scores more
47%

Gaziantep FK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Gaziantep FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 0–4 Gaziantep FK

Gaziantep FK beat Kırıkkale Büyük Anadolu 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2019.

The match was played at Başpınar 17 Ağustos Stadı in Kırıkkale.