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K-Järve JK Järve vs Tammeka II — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tammeka II
Tammeka II
5/12/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 10Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve32%
×Draw21%
Tammeka II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.71
Tammeka II
2.10

Tammeka II creates 23% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 18 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.14
Tammeka II
1.56

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.65
Tammeka II
2.28

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Tammeka II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Tammeka II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
53%
K-Järve JK Järve or Tammeka II
79%
Draw or Tammeka II
68%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
16%
Tammeka II wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
82%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
51%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
24%
Tammeka II 1+ goals
88%
Tammeka II 2+ goals
62%
Tammeka II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
40%
Tammeka II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

Tammeka II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + Tammeka II defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tammeka II attack 1.56 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
32%
level
21%
Tammeka II scores more
47%

Tammeka II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tammeka II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: K-Järve JK Järve 0–2 Tammeka II

Tammeka II beat K-Järve JK Järve 2-0 in Esiliiga A on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Spordikeskuse staadion (Kohtla-Järve).