Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

K-Järve JK Järve vs Nõmme United — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nõmme United
Nõmme United
7/19/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 13Spordikeskuse staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve14%
×Draw16%
Nõmme United70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.24
Nõmme United
2.83

Nõmme United creates 128% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 80 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.14
Nõmme United
3.01

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.65
Nõmme United
1.34

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Nõmme United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Nõmme United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
30%
K-Järve JK Järve or Nõmme United
84%
Draw or Nõmme United
86%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
5%
Nõmme United wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
71%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
35%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
13%
Nõmme United 1+ goals
94%
Nõmme United 2+ goals
77%
Nõmme United 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
17%
Nõmme United (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.65 · 71 matches

Nõmme United away — creates 3.01, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.14 + Nõmme United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Nõmme United attack 3.01 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
14%
level
16%
Nõmme United scores more
70%

Nõmme United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nõmme United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Nõmme United

K-Järve JK Järve and Nõmme United drew 1-1 in Esiliiga A on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Spordikeskuse staadion in Kohtla-Järve.