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K-Järve JK Järve vs Luunja — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Luunja
Luunja
8/29/2020Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 20Spordikeskuse staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve48%
×Draw21%
Luunja32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
2.21
Luunja
1.79

K-Järve JK Järve creates 23% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 44 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.16
Luunja
0.89

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.68
Luunja
3.27

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Luunja+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Luunja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
68%
K-Järve JK Järve or Luunja
79%
Draw or Luunja
52%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
28%
Luunja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
89%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
65%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
38%
Luunja 1+ goals
83%
Luunja 2+ goals
53%
Luunja 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
60%
Luunja (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 68 matches

Luunja away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.16 + Luunja defence 3.27 → ÷2 → 2.21

Luunja attack 0.89 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
48%
level
21%
Luunja scores more
32%

K-Järve JK Järve at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "K-Järve JK Järve will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: K-Järve JK Järve 0–1 Luunja

Luunja beat K-Järve JK Järve 1-0 in Esiliiga A on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Spordikeskuse staadion in Kohtla-Järve.