K-Järve JK Järve 0–3 Laagri: Result & Stats

K-Järve JK Järve

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Laagri

K. Antonov 90+2'

R. Sobtšenko 67'

H. Tammerik 9'

5/7/2022

Esiliiga A · Round 12Kohtla-Järve kunstmuruväljak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve17%

×Draw17%

Laagri66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

K-Järve JK JärveExpected goals in this matchLaagri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.70

K-Järve JK Järve

1.34

Laagri

2.70

Laagri creates 101% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 36 away

1.16

creates per match

2.72

2.68

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve

1.16

Laagri

2.72

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve

2.68

Laagri

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Laagri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Laagri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw

34%

K-Järve JK Järve or Laagri

83%

Draw or Laagri

83%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

7%

Laagri wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

74%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

39%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

15%

Laagri 1+ goals

93%

Laagri 2+ goals

75%

Laagri 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

21%

Laagri (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.68 · 68 matches

Laagri away — creates 2.72, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.16 + Laagri defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.34

Laagri attack 2.72 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

17%

level

17%

Laagri scores more

66%

Laagri at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Laagri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

H. Tammerik

25'

55'

63'

67'

74'

74'

81'

A. Pjaterikov← G. Mitsuk

81'

A. Vitrikus← V. Velikanov

83'

K. Tilga← K. Dubrovski

83'

R. Kirsimägi← A. Kaevats

90+2'

K. Antonov

K-Järve

Laagri

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Šteinberg

81'▲A. Pjaterikov←▼G. Mitsuk

81'▲A. Vitrikus←▼V. Velikanov

K-Järve JK Järve substitutes

PjaterikovVitrikusBarkanovCherkasov

Manager: Victor da Silva

63'▲M. Niilop←▼I. Kartau

74'▲K. Antonov←▼A. Järva

74'▲P. Chan←▼J. Nielsen

83'▲K. Tilga←▼K. Dubrovski

83'▲R. Kirsimägi←▼A. Kaevats

Laagri substitutes

NiilopAntonovChanTilgaKirsimägiVahiPärn