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K-Järve JK Järve vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

K-Järve JK Järve
K-Järve JK Järve
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Elva
Elva
3/30/2019Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 3Ahtme Gümnaasiumi kunstmuru (Kohtla-Järve)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

K-Järve JK Järve30%
×Draw22%
Elva49%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

K-Järve JK Järve
1.55
Elva
2.02

Elva creates 30% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 120 away

creates per match

K-Järve JK Järve
1.18
Elva
1.42

allows per match

K-Järve JK Järve
2.62
Elva
1.92

finishing

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

K-Järve JK Järve ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

K-Järve JK Järve or draw
51%
K-Järve JK Järve or Elva
78%
Draw or Elva
70%

Winning margin

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+
14%
Elva wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals
79%
K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals
46%
K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals
20%
Elva 1+ goals
87%
Elva 2+ goals
60%
Elva 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)
38%
Elva (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

K-Järve JK Järve at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.62 · 73 matches

Elva away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.92 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

K-Järve JK Järve attack 1.18 + Elva defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Elva attack 1.42 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

K-Järve JK Järve scores more
30%
level
22%
Elva scores more
49%

Elva at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: K-Järve JK Järve vs Elva

K-Järve JK Järve beat Elva 2-1 in Esiliiga A on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at Ahtme Gümnaasiumi kunstmuru (Kohtla-Järve).