Elva 3–0 K-Järve JK Järve: Result & Stats

Elva

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

K-Järve JK Järve

7/2/2023

Esiliiga A · Round 19Elva linnastaadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Elva65%

×Draw18%

K-Järve JK Järve17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElvaExpected goals in this matchK-Järve JK Järve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.25

Elva

2.54

K-Järve JK Järve

1.25

Elva creates 103% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 69 away

1.96

creates per match

0.96

1.53

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Elva

1.96

K-Järve JK Järve

0.96

allows per match

Elva

1.53

K-Järve JK Järve

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elva+0.00on par

K-Järve JK Järve+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elva ↓

K-Järve JK Järve →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Elva or draw

83%

Elva or K-Järve JK Järve

82%

Draw or K-Järve JK Järve

35%

Winning margin

Elva wins by 2+

43%

K-Järve JK Järve wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Elva 1+ goals

92%

Elva 2+ goals

72%

Elva 3+ goals

46%

K-Järve JK Järve 1+ goals

71%

K-Järve JK Järve 2+ goals

36%

K-Järve JK Järve 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Elva (draw refunded)

79%

K-Järve JK Järve (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elva at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.53 · 129 matches

K-Järve JK Järve away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.13 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elva attack 1.96 + K-Järve JK Järve defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

K-Järve JK Järve attack 0.96 + Elva defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Elva scores more

65%

level

18%

K-Järve JK Järve scores more

17%

Elva at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Elva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff