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Køge W vs Sundby W — Kvindeliga 2019

Køge W
Køge W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sundby W
Sundby W
10/2/2022KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 7Capelli Sport Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Køge W78%
×Draw15%
Sundby W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Køge W
2.30
Sundby W
0.49

Køge W creates 369% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 7 away

creates per match

Køge W
2.32
Sundby W
0.29

allows per match

Køge W
0.70
Sundby W
2.29

finishing

Køge W+0.00on par
Sundby W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Køge W ↓

Sundby W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Køge W or draw
94%
Køge W or Sundby W
85%
Draw or Sundby W
22%

Winning margin

Køge W wins by 2+
54%
Sundby W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Køge W 1+ goals
90%
Køge W 2+ goals
67%
Køge W 3+ goals
40%
Sundby W 1+ goals
39%
Sundby W 2+ goals
9%
Sundby W 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Køge W (draw refunded)
92%
Sundby W (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Køge W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.70 · 74 matches

Sundby W away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Køge W attack 2.32 + Sundby W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.30

Sundby W attack 0.29 + Køge W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Køge W scores more
78%
level
15%
Sundby W scores more
6%

Køge W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Køge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kvindeliga: Køge W 3–0 Sundby W

Køge W beat Sundby W 3-0 in Kvindeliga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Capelli Sport Stadion in Køge.