Lask Juniors Linz 1–1 Gurten: Result & Stats

Lask Juniors Linz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gurten

9/19/2015

Regionalliga - Mitte · Round 9Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lask Juniors Linz27%

×Draw23%

Gurten50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask Juniors LinzExpected goals in this matchGurten

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.88

Lask Juniors Linz

1.33

Gurten

1.88

Gurten creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 114 away

1.50

creates per match

1.59

2.17

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Lask Juniors Linz

1.50

Gurten

1.59

allows per match

Lask Juniors Linz

2.17

Gurten

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lask Juniors Linz+0.00on par

Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Juniors Linz ↓

Gurten →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Lask Juniors Linz or draw

50%

Lask Juniors Linz or Gurten

77%

Draw or Gurten

73%

Winning margin

Lask Juniors Linz wins by 2+

12%

Gurten wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Lask Juniors Linz 1+ goals

74%

Lask Juniors Linz 2+ goals

38%

Lask Juniors Linz 3+ goals

15%

Gurten 1+ goals

85%

Gurten 2+ goals

56%

Gurten 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Lask Juniors Linz (draw refunded)

35%

Gurten (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Juniors Linz at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Juniors Linz attack 1.50 + Gurten defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gurten attack 1.59 + Lask Juniors Linz defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lask Juniors Linz scores more

27%

level

23%

Gurten scores more

50%

Gurten at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff