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Gurten vs Lask Juniors Linz — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Lask Juniors Linz
Lask Juniors Linz
4/21/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 26Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Gurten49%
×Draw24%
Lask Juniors Linz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
1.65
Lask Juniors Linz
1.16

Gurten creates 42% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.72
Lask Juniors Linz
1.43

allows per match

Gurten
0.88
Lask Juniors Linz
1.57

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Lask Juniors Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Lask Juniors Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
73%
Gurten or Lask Juniors Linz
76%
Draw or Lask Juniors Linz
51%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
26%
Lask Juniors Linz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
81%
Gurten 2+ goals
49%
Gurten 3+ goals
23%
Lask Juniors Linz 1+ goals
69%
Lask Juniors Linz 2+ goals
32%
Lask Juniors Linz 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
64%
Lask Juniors Linz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.88 · 114 matches

Lask Juniors Linz away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.72 + Lask Juniors Linz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lask Juniors Linz attack 1.43 + Gurten defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gurten scores more
49%
level
24%
Lask Juniors Linz scores more
27%

Gurten at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gurten vs Lask Juniors Linz

Gurten and Lask Juniors Linz drew 2-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 21, 2018.

The match was played at Park21-Arena Gurten in Gurten.