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JyTy Turku vs SalPa — Suomen Cup 2018

JyTy Turku
JyTy Turku
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SalPa
SalPa
4/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundKupittaan Kentät

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

JyTy Turku32%
×Draw21%
SalPa47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JyTy Turku
1.80
SalPa
2.20

SalPa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

JyTy Turku
2.80
SalPa
2.60

allows per match

JyTy Turku
1.80
SalPa
0.80

finishing

JyTy Turku+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JyTy Turku ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

JyTy Turku or draw
53%
JyTy Turku or SalPa
79%
Draw or SalPa
68%

Winning margin

JyTy Turku wins by 2+
16%
SalPa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

JyTy Turku 1+ goals
83%
JyTy Turku 2+ goals
54%
JyTy Turku 3+ goals
27%
SalPa 1+ goals
89%
SalPa 2+ goals
64%
SalPa 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

JyTy Turku (draw refunded)
41%
SalPa (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JyTy Turku at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

SalPa away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JyTy Turku attack 2.80 + SalPa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

SalPa attack 2.60 + JyTy Turku defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JyTy Turku scores more
32%
level
21%
SalPa scores more
47%

SalPa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JyTy Turku 1–2 SalPa

SalPa beat JyTy Turku 2-1 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kupittaan Kentät in Åbo.