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JyPK W vs TPS W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

JyPK W
JyPK W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TPS W
TPS W
9/5/2020Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 13Harjun stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

JyPK W29%
×Draw22%
TPS W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JyPK W
1.46
TPS W
1.93

TPS W creates 32% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 26 away

creates per match

JyPK W
0.88
TPS W
1.27

allows per match

JyPK W
2.59
TPS W
2.04

finishing

JyPK W+0.00on par
TPS W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JyPK W ↓

TPS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

JyPK W or draw
51%
JyPK W or TPS W
78%
Draw or TPS W
71%

Winning margin

JyPK W wins by 2+
13%
TPS W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

JyPK W 1+ goals
77%
JyPK W 2+ goals
43%
JyPK W 3+ goals
18%
TPS W 1+ goals
85%
TPS W 2+ goals
57%
TPS W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

JyPK W (draw refunded)
38%
TPS W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JyPK W at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

TPS W away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JyPK W attack 0.88 + TPS W defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

TPS W attack 1.27 + JyPK W defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

JyPK W scores more
29%
level
22%
TPS W scores more
49%

TPS W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "TPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JyPK W 2 – 1 TPS W

JyPK W beat TPS W 2-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Harjun stadion in Jyväskylä.