Juventus W 2–1 Parma W: Result & Stats

Juventus W

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Parma W

C. Girelli 22'

B. Bonansea 17'

M. Cambiaghi 80'

2/26/2023

League #139 · Round 18Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventus W64%

×Draw24%

Parma W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus WExpected goals in this matchParma W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.54

Juventus W

1.63

Parma W

0.54

Juventus W creates 202% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

0.33

0.75

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juventus W

1.25

Parma W

0.33

allows per match

Juventus W

0.75

Parma W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus W+0.00on par

Parma W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus W ↓

Parma W →

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Juventus W or draw

88%

Juventus W or Parma W

76%

Draw or Parma W

36%

Winning margin

Juventus W wins by 2+

36%

Parma W wins by 2+

Team goals

Juventus W 1+ goals

80%

Juventus W 2+ goals

48%

Juventus W 3+ goals

22%

Parma W 1+ goals

42%

Parma W 2+ goals

10%

Parma W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Juventus W (draw refunded)

84%

Parma W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Juventus W at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Parma W away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Juventus W attack 1.25 + Parma W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Parma W attack 0.33 + Juventus W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 64%?"

Juventus W scores more

64%

level

24%

Parma W scores more

12%

Juventus W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

B. Bonansea↳ S. Junge Pedersen

22'

C. Girelli↳ L. Beerensteyn

34'

Giovana Maia← N. Arcangeli

59'

M. Cambiaghi← Paloma Lázaro

59'

M. Martinovic← M. Corbin

68'

P. Nyström← C. Girelli

68'

V. Cernoia← A. Caruso

80'

M. Cambiaghi↳ N. Farrelly

83'

M. Lenzini← M. Rosucci

85'

M. Árnadóttir← A. Benoît

85'

G. Arrigoni← N. Farrelly

Juventus

Parma

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Girelli

⚽

Bonansea

Beerenste

Manager: J. Montemurro

68'▲P. Nyström←▼C. Girelli

68'▲V. Cernoia←▼A. Caruso

83'▲M. Lenzini←▼M. Rosucci

Juventus W substitutes

6Nyström7Cernoia71Lenzini1Aprile20Simon29Pfattner33Duljan15Grosso9Cantore

Manager: D. Panico

34'▲Giovana Maia←▼N. Arcangeli

59'▲M. Cambiaghi←▼Paloma Lázaro

59'▲M. Martinovic←▼M. Corbin

85'▲M. Árnadóttir←▼A. Benoît

85'▲G. Arrigoni←▼N. Farrelly

Parma W substitutes

77Maia36Cambiaghi24Martinovic19Árnadóttir28Arrigoni15Nicolini44Brscic12Ciccioli20Vaitukaitytė

League #139: Juventus W 2–1 Parma W

Juventus W beat Parma W 2-1 in League #139 on February 26, 2023.

Goals: B. Bonansea (17'), C. Girelli (22'), M. Cambiaghi (80').

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.

Juventus W vs Parma W — League #139 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #139: Juventus W 2–1 Parma W