Juventus W 2–1 Napoli W: Result & Stats

Juventus W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Napoli W

M. Cambiaghi 86'

C. Beccari 46'

K. Kozak 39'

12/13/2025

League #139 · Round 9Stadio Vittorio Pozzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventus W67%

×Draw21%

Napoli W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus WExpected goals in this matchNapoli W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.58

Juventus W

1.83

Napoli W

0.58

Juventus W creates 216% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

0.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Juventus W

2.00

Napoli W

0.67

allows per match

Juventus W

0.50

Napoli W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus W+0.00on par

Napoli W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus W ↓

Napoli W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juventus W or draw

89%

Juventus W or Napoli W

79%

Draw or Napoli W

33%

Winning margin

Juventus W wins by 2+

41%

Napoli W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Juventus W 1+ goals

84%

Juventus W 2+ goals

54%

Juventus W 3+ goals

28%

Napoli W 1+ goals

44%

Napoli W 2+ goals

12%

Napoli W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Juventus W (draw refunded)

86%

Napoli W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Napoli W away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus W attack 2.00 + Napoli W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Napoli W attack 0.67 + Juventus W defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Juventus W scores more

67%

level

21%

Napoli W scores more

11%

Juventus W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71

M. Lenzini

Juventus W · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

K. Kozak↳ M. Troan

41'

Mali TroanGoal confirmed

45+1'

Emma Kullberg

46'

E. Carbonell← E. Kullberg

46'

T. Pinto← A. Brighton

46'

P. Krumbiegel← E. Cascarino

46'

C. Beccari↳ E. Carbonell

47'

Chiara BeccariGoal confirmed

57'

Mille Jusjong Henriksen

66'

Mali TroanPenalty cancelled

68'

C. Girelli← M. Rosucci

75'

F. Vischi← M. Troan

79'

Cristiana GirelliPenalty cancelled

82'

M. Doucoure← A. Carcassi

83'

M. Sciabica← K. Kozak

85'

M. Harviken← M. Lenzini

86'

M. Cambiaghi

87'

Michela CambiaghiGoal confirmed

89'

D. Vanmechelen← M. Bellucci

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusNapoli

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots16

5Corners11

6Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots16

3On Target3

3Off Target7

5Blocked6

7Inside Box11

4Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

396Total Passes367

297Accurate Passes270

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

6Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2