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Juventus W vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Juventus W
Juventus W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
8/21/2022UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - FinalsJuventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventus W56%
×Draw19%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus W
2.41
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
1.58

Juventus W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Juventus W
2.48
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
2.00

allows per match

Juventus W
1.17
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
2.33

finishing

Juventus W+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus W ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Juventus W or draw
75%
Juventus W or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
81%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Gat W
44%

Winning margin

Juventus W wins by 2+
35%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juventus W 1+ goals
91%
Juventus W 2+ goals
69%
Juventus W 3+ goals
43%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 2+ goals
47%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Juventus W (draw refunded)
69%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus W attack 2.48 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.41

Maccabi Kiryat Gat W attack 2.00 + Juventus W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventus W scores more
56%
level
19%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat W scores more
25%

Juventus W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus W vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat W

Juventus W beat Maccabi Kiryat Gat W 3-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.