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Juventus W vs Kamenica Sasa W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Juventus W
Juventus Wadvanced
FT
12 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Kamenica Sasa W
Kamenica Sasa W
8/18/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsJuventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Juventus W92%
×Draw6%
Kamenica Sasa W3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus W
4.41
Kamenica Sasa W
0.75

Juventus W creates 488% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 3 away

creates per match

Juventus W
2.48
Kamenica Sasa W
0.33

allows per match

Juventus W
1.17
Kamenica Sasa W
6.33

finishing

Juventus W+0.00on par
Kamenica Sasa W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus W ↓

Kamenica Sasa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–12%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (11%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Juventus W or draw
97%
Juventus W or Kamenica Sasa W
94%
Draw or Kamenica Sasa W
8%

Winning margin

Juventus W wins by 2+
80%
Kamenica Sasa W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Juventus W 1+ goals
99%
Juventus W 2+ goals
92%
Juventus W 3+ goals
78%
Kamenica Sasa W 1+ goals
53%
Kamenica Sasa W 2+ goals
17%
Kamenica Sasa W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventus W (draw refunded)
97%
Kamenica Sasa W (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Kamenica Sasa W away — creates 0.33, concedes 6.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus W attack 2.48 + Kamenica Sasa W defence 6.33 → ÷2 → 4.41

Kamenica Sasa W attack 0.33 + Juventus W defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Juventus W scores more
92%
level
6%
Kamenica Sasa W scores more
3%

Juventus W at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Juventus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Juventus W 12–0 Kamenica Sasa W

Juventus W beat Kamenica Sasa W 12-0 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.