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Juventus vs Villarreal — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal
Villarrealadvanced
3/16/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Round of 16Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Juventus54%
×Draw23%
Villarreal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.80
Villarreal
1.08

Juventus creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.91
Villarreal
1.20

allows per match

Juventus
0.96
Villarreal
1.70

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Villarreal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Villarreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
77%
Juventus or Villarreal
77%
Draw or Villarreal
46%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
30%
Villarreal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
83%
Juventus 2+ goals
54%
Juventus 3+ goals
27%
Villarreal 1+ goals
66%
Villarreal 2+ goals
29%
Villarreal 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
70%
Villarreal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.91 + Villarreal defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.80

Villarreal attack 1.20 + Juventus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Juventus scores more
54%
level
23%
Villarreal scores more
23%

Juventus at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Juventus 0–3 Villarreal

Villarreal beat Juventus 3-0 in UEFA Champions League on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.