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Juventus vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
8/31/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 4Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Juventus61%
×Draw22%
Spezia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.94
Spezia
0.91

Juventus creates 113% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 57 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.93
Spezia
1.00

allows per match

Juventus
0.81
Spezia
1.96

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
83%
Juventus or Spezia
78%
Draw or Spezia
39%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
37%
Spezia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
86%
Juventus 2+ goals
58%
Juventus 3+ goals
30%
Spezia 1+ goals
60%
Spezia 2+ goals
23%
Spezia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
78%
Spezia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.96 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.93 + Spezia defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.94

Spezia attack 1.00 + Juventus defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Juventus scores more
61%
level
22%
Spezia scores more
17%

Juventus at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Juventus 2–0 Spezia

Juventus beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie A on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.