Juventus 1–1 Sevilla: Result & Stats

Juventus

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sevilla

5/11/2023

UEFA Europa League · Semi-finalsAllianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Juventus38%

×Draw31%

Sevilla31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchSevilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.94

Juventus

1.07

Sevilla

0.94

Juventus creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

1.38

0.50

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Juventus

1.00

Sevilla

1.38

allows per match

Juventus

0.50

Sevilla

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par

Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Sevilla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

69%

Juventus or Sevilla

69%

Draw or Sevilla

62%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

15%

Sevilla wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

66%

Juventus 2+ goals

29%

Juventus 3+ goals

9%

Sevilla 1+ goals

61%

Sevilla 2+ goals

24%

Sevilla 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

55%

Sevilla (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Sevilla away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.00 + Sevilla defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sevilla attack 1.38 + Juventus defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juventus scores more

38%

level

31%

Sevilla scores more

31%

Juventus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff