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Juventus vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2018

Juventus
Juventus
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
8/15/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 1Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Juventus55%
×Draw24%
Sassuolo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.73
Sassuolo
0.99

Juventus creates 75% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 29 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.81
Sassuolo
1.16

allows per match

Juventus
0.83
Sassuolo
1.66

finishing

Juventus-0.07on par
Sassuolo-0.09on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
78%
Juventus or Sassuolo
76%
Draw or Sassuolo
45%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
30%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
82%
Juventus 2+ goals
52%
Juventus 3+ goals
25%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
63%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
26%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
72%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 27 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.66 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.81 + Sassuolo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sassuolo attack 1.16 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juventus scores more
55%
level
24%
Sassuolo scores more
22%

Juventus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Juventus 3–0 Sassuolo

Juventus beat Sassuolo 3-0 in Serie A on August 15, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.