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Juventus vs Monza — Serie A 2018

Juventus
Juventus
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Monza
Monza
1/29/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 20Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Juventus53%
×Draw24%
Monza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.69
Monza
1.03

Juventus creates 64% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 6 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.81
Monza
1.23

allows per match

Juventus
0.83
Monza
1.57

finishing

Juventus-0.07on par
Monza+0.44scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Monza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
77%
Juventus or Monza
76%
Draw or Monza
47%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
29%
Monza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
82%
Juventus 2+ goals
50%
Juventus 3+ goals
24%
Monza 1+ goals
64%
Monza 2+ goals
28%
Monza 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
70%
Monza (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 27 matches

Monza away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.81 + Monza defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Monza attack 1.23 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Juventus scores more
53%
level
24%
Monza scores more
23%

Juventus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs Monza

Monza beat Juventus 2-0 in Serie A on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.