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Juventus vs Maccabi Haifa — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Haifa
Maccabi Haifa
10/5/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group H - 3Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Juventus62%
×Draw20%
Maccabi Haifa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
2.24
Maccabi Haifa
1.13

Juventus creates 98% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.91
Maccabi Haifa
1.29

allows per match

Juventus
0.96
Maccabi Haifa
2.57

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Maccabi Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
82%
Juventus or Maccabi Haifa
80%
Draw or Maccabi Haifa
38%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
39%
Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
89%
Juventus 2+ goals
65%
Juventus 3+ goals
38%
Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals
31%
Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
77%
Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.96 · 23 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.91 + Maccabi Haifa defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.24

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.29 + Juventus defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Juventus scores more
62%
level
20%
Maccabi Haifa scores more
18%

Juventus at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Juventus 3–1 Maccabi Haifa

Juventus beat Maccabi Haifa 3-1 in UEFA Champions League on October 5, 2022.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.