Juventus 2–1 Hellas Verona: Result & Stats

Juventus

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hellas Verona

Cristiano Ronaldo 49' (pen)

Aaron Ramsey 31'

Miguel Veloso 20'

9/21/2019

Serie A · Round 4Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Juventus55%

×Draw24%

Hellas Verona21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuventusExpected goals in this matchHellas Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.93

Juventus

1.68

Hellas Verona

0.93

Juventus creates 81% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 21 away

1.73

creates per match

1.03

0.83

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Juventus

1.73

Hellas Verona

1.03

allows per match

Juventus

0.83

Hellas Verona

1.62

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less

Hellas Verona-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Hellas Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Juventus or draw

79%

Juventus or Hellas Verona

76%

Draw or Hellas Verona

45%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+

30%

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals

81%

Juventus 2+ goals

50%

Juventus 3+ goals

24%

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

61%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

24%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)

73%

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Hellas Verona defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.68

Hellas Verona attack 1.03 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Juventus scores more

55%

level

24%

Hellas Verona scores more

21%

Juventus at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Juventus · F

8.4

Match Events

16'

Marash Kumbulla

20'

Miguel Veloso

20'

Samuel Di CarmineMissed penalty

28'

Amir Rrahmani

31'

Aaron Ramsey↳ Cristiano Ronaldo

34'

Davide Faraoni

49'

Cristiano RonaldoPenalty

51'

Miralem Pjanić← Rodrigo Bentancur

59'

Matteo Pessina← Valerio Verre

61'

Sami Khedira← Aaron Ramsey

72'

Gonzalo Higuaín← Paulo Dybala

73'

Gennaro Tutino← Mattia Zaccagni

85'

Giampaolo Pazzini← Sofyan Amrabat

90'

Marash Kumbulla

90'

Marash Kumbulla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuventusHellas

Overview

59%Possession41%

21Total Shots10

2Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

21Total Shots10

3On Target3

13Off Target3

5Blocked4

10Inside Box5

11Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

514Total Passes354

434Accurate Passes270

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls19

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0