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Hellas Verona vs Juventus — Serie A 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Juventus
Juventus
11/10/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 14Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Hellas Verona26%
×Draw29%
Juventus45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
0.90
Juventus
1.27

Juventus creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
0.80
Juventus
1.48

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.05
Juventus
0.99

finishing

Hellas Verona-0.17scores less
Juventus-0.07on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
55%
Hellas Verona or Juventus
71%
Draw or Juventus
74%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
9%
Juventus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
59%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
23%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
6%
Juventus 1+ goals
72%
Juventus 2+ goals
36%
Juventus 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
37%
Juventus (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 0.80 + Juventus defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Juventus attack 1.48 + Hellas Verona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
26%
level
29%
Juventus scores more
45%

Juventus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Hellas Verona 0–1 Juventus

Juventus beat Hellas Verona 1-0 in Serie A on November 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.