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Rotherham vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
12/8/2012League TwoLeague Two · Round 21New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham46%
×Draw25%
Gillingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.54
Gillingham
1.14

Rotherham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Gillingham
0.90

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Gillingham
1.35

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
72%
Rotherham or Gillingham
75%
Draw or Gillingham
54%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
23%
Gillingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
79%
Rotherham 2+ goals
45%
Rotherham 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
68%
Gillingham 2+ goals
32%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
62%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rotherham scores more
46%
level
25%
Gillingham scores more
28%

Rotherham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

League Two: Rotherham 1–2 Gillingham

Gillingham beat Rotherham 2-1 in League Two on December 8, 2012.

The match was played at New York Stadium.