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Gillingham vs Rotherham — League One 2018

Gillingham
Gillingham
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
G. Kelly 89'
R. Edmonds-Green 34'
4/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 46Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Gillingham33%
×Draw27%
Rotherham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gillingham
1.17
Rotherham
1.31

Rotherham creates 12% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

creates per match

Gillingham
1.19
Rotherham
1.15

allows per match

Gillingham
1.48
Rotherham
1.15

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw
60%
Gillingham or Rotherham
73%
Draw or Rotherham
67%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+
14%
Rotherham wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals
69%
Gillingham 2+ goals
33%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%
Rotherham 1+ goals
73%
Rotherham 2+ goals
38%
Rotherham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)
45%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Rotherham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Rotherham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Rotherham attack 1.15 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more
33%
level
27%
Rotherham scores more
40%

Rotherham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
R. Edmonds-GreenRotherhamRotherham · D
8.3

Match Events

17'
Stuart O'Keefe
21'
David Tutonda
34'
R. Edmonds-Green↳ M. Ihiekwe
55'
Richard Wood
67'
M. Carayol← O. Lee
67'
J. Mattock← J. Osei-Tutu
71'
Ben Thompson
74'
D. Phillips← C. Masterson
80'
G. Kelly← M. Smith
83'
Wes Harding
87'
G. Sithole← D. Tutonda
89'
G. Kelly↳ C. Ogbene
90'
Georgie Kelly
90+3'
H. Odoffin← O. Rathbone

Possession

48%Gillingham

Shots

7Gillingham

Pass accuracy

47%Gillingham

Statistics

GillinghamRotherham
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots17
4Corners10
10Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots17
2On Target7
3Off Target8
2Blocked2
5Inside Box14
2Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
233Total Passes240
130Accurate Passes153
56%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Gillingham vs Rotherham

Rotherham beat Gillingham 2-0 in League One on April 30, 2022.

Goals: R. Edmonds-Green (34'), G. Kelly (89').

Rotherham controlled possession (52%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Priestfield Stadium in Gillingham, Kent.