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Juventus vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Crotone
Crotone
2/22/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 23Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Juventus68%
×Draw19%
Crotone14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
2.24
Crotone
0.89

Juventus creates 152% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 33 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.93
Crotone
0.97

allows per match

Juventus
0.81
Crotone
2.55

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
86%
Juventus or Crotone
81%
Draw or Crotone
32%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
44%
Crotone wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
89%
Juventus 2+ goals
65%
Juventus 3+ goals
38%
Crotone 1+ goals
59%
Crotone 2+ goals
22%
Crotone 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
83%
Crotone (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.81 · 137 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.93 + Crotone defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.24

Crotone attack 0.97 + Juventus defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Juventus scores more
68%
level
19%
Crotone scores more
14%

Juventus at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Juventus 3–0 Crotone

Juventus beat Crotone 3-0 in Serie A on February 22, 2021.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.