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Juventus vs Cremonese — Serie A 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cremonese
Cremonese
5/14/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 35Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Juventus60%
×Draw24%
Cremonese16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.70
Cremonese
0.75

Juventus creates 127% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 20 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.73
Cremonese
0.67

allows per match

Juventus
0.83
Cremonese
1.67

finishing

Juventus-0.17scores less
Cremonese+0.03on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Cremonese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
84%
Juventus or Cremonese
76%
Draw or Cremonese
40%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
34%
Cremonese wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
82%
Juventus 2+ goals
51%
Juventus 3+ goals
24%
Cremonese 1+ goals
53%
Cremonese 2+ goals
17%
Cremonese 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
79%
Cremonese (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.83 · 32 matches

Cremonese away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.73 + Cremonese defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cremonese attack 0.67 + Juventus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Juventus scores more
60%
level
24%
Cremonese scores more
16%

Juventus at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus vs Cremonese

Juventus beat Cremonese 2-0 in Serie A on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.