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Juventus vs Barcelona — UEFA Champions League 2026

Juventus
Juventus
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Barcelona
Barcelona
10/28/2020UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group G - 2Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Juventus45%
×Draw24%
Barcelona31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus
1.62
Barcelona
1.29

Juventus creates 26% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 27 away

creates per match

Juventus
1.86
Barcelona
1.59

allows per match

Juventus
1.00
Barcelona
1.37

finishing

Juventus+0.00on par
Barcelona+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus ↓

Barcelona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Juventus or draw
69%
Juventus or Barcelona
76%
Draw or Barcelona
55%

Winning margin

Juventus wins by 2+
23%
Barcelona wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus 1+ goals
80%
Juventus 2+ goals
48%
Juventus 3+ goals
22%
Barcelona 1+ goals
72%
Barcelona 2+ goals
37%
Barcelona 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Juventus (draw refunded)
60%
Barcelona (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.00 · 22 matches

Barcelona away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus attack 1.86 + Barcelona defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Barcelona attack 1.59 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Juventus scores more
45%
level
24%
Barcelona scores more
31%

Juventus at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League: Juventus 0–2 Barcelona

Barcelona beat Juventus 2-0 in UEFA Champions League on October 28, 2020.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Torino.