Juventus U23 1–1 Carrarese: Result & Stats

Juventus U23

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Carrarese

5/21/2024

Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 4th RoundStadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Juventus U2326%

×Draw29%

Carrarese44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U23Expected goals in this matchCarrarese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.23

Juventus U23

0.88

Carrarese

1.23

Carrarese creates 40% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.20

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Juventus U23

1.00

Carrarese

1.25

allows per match

Juventus U23

1.20

Carrarese

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U23+0.00on par

Carrarese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U23 ↓

Carrarese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Juventus U23 or draw

56%

Juventus U23 or Carrarese

71%

Draw or Carrarese

74%

Winning margin

Juventus U23 wins by 2+

9%

Carrarese wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Juventus U23 1+ goals

59%

Juventus U23 2+ goals

22%

Juventus U23 3+ goals

6%

Carrarese 1+ goals

71%

Carrarese 2+ goals

35%

Carrarese 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Juventus U23 (draw refunded)

37%

Carrarese (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U23 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Carrarese away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U23 attack 1.00 + Carrarese defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Carrarese attack 1.25 + Juventus U23 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juventus U23 scores more

26%

level

29%

Carrarese scores more

44%

Carrarese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Carrarese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff