Juventus U20 2–1 Monza U20: Result & Stats

Juventus U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Monza U20

G. Finocchiaro 90'

A. Durmisi 45' (pen)

C. Fogliaro 35'

2/15/2026

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 25Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Juventus U2047%

×Draw24%

Monza U2029%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U20Expected goals in this matchMonza U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.30

Juventus U20

1.73

Monza U20

1.30

Juventus U20 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.79

creates per match

1.26

1.34

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Juventus U20

1.79

Monza U20

1.26

allows per match

Juventus U20

1.34

Monza U20

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par

Monza U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Monza U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw

71%

Juventus U20 or Monza U20

76%

Draw or Monza U20

53%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+

25%

Monza U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals

82%

Juventus U20 2+ goals

52%

Juventus U20 3+ goals

25%

Monza U20 1+ goals

73%

Monza U20 2+ goals

37%

Monza U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)

62%

Monza U20 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Monza U20 away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.68 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.79 + Monza U20 defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.73

Monza U20 attack 1.26 + Juventus U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Juventus U20 scores more

47%

level

24%

Monza U20 scores more

29%

Juventus U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

C. Fogliaro

36'

45'

A. DurmisiPenalty

47'

81'

90'

G. Finocchiaro

Juventus

Monza

43

3

5

2

11

8

14

19

39

10

90

⚽

40

44

4

13

26

11

25

6

28

14

⚽

Durmisi

27

Elimoghal

Juventus U20 substitutes

37Huli33Brul19Sylla17Vallana8Keutgen29Borasio10Finocchiaro21Merola9Lopez20Pugno47Oboavwoduo

Monza U20 substitutes

12Montagna33Albe95Porta13Castelli77Ganci18Treffiletti6Romanini24Ballabio80Rossini17Fardin9Gaye

Campionato Primavera - 1: Juventus U20 2–1 Monza U20

Juventus U20 beat Monza U20 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on February 15, 2026.

Goals: C. Fogliaro (35'), A. Durmisi (45' pen), G. Finocchiaro (90').

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.

Juventus U20 vs Monza U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Campionato Primavera - 1: Juventus U20 2–1 Monza U20