Juventus U20 1–0 Inter Limeira U20: Result & Stats

Juventus U20

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Limeira U20

F. Oliveira Silva 35'

8/6/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Juventus U2042%

×Draw27%

Inter Limeira U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U20Expected goals in this matchInter Limeira U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.09

Juventus U20

1.34

Inter Limeira U20

1.09

Juventus U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

1.18

creates per match

1.25

0.94

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Juventus U20

1.18

Inter Limeira U20

1.25

allows per match

Juventus U20

0.94

Inter Limeira U20

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par

Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw

70%

Juventus U20 or Inter Limeira U20

73%

Draw or Inter Limeira U20

58%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+

20%

Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals

74%

Juventus U20 2+ goals

39%

Juventus U20 3+ goals

15%

Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals

66%

Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals

30%

Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)

58%

Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus U20 scores more

42%

level

27%

Inter Limeira U20 scores more

30%

Juventus U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

F. Oliveira Silva

86'

Samuel Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff