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Juventus U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
Vinicius Pereira 90+2' (pen)
Pedro Estevam 25' (pen)
7/18/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventus U2032%
×Draw27%
Ferroviária U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.14
Ferroviária U20
1.32

Ferroviária U20 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.18
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Juventus U20
0.94
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
59%
Juventus U20 or Ferroviária U20
73%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
68%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
13%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
68%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
32%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
11%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
73%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
38%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
44%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
32%
level
27%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
41%

Ferroviária U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Pedro EstevamPenalty
45+1'
90+2'
Vinicius PereiraPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Juventus U20 0–2 Ferroviária U20

Ferroviária U20 beat Juventus U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 18, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Estevam (25' pen), Vinicius Pereira (90+2' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi in São Paulo, São Paulo.