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Juventus U20 vs Corinthians U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Corinthians U20
Corinthians U20
G. G. da Silva Filho L. 83'
A. Luiz 62'
T. Lisboa 37'
4/27/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Juventus U2036%
×Draw28%
Corinthians U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.19
Corinthians U20
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.18
Corinthians U20
1.46

allows per match

Juventus U20
0.94
Corinthians U20
1.21

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 57Over: 4357%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 51Yes: 4951%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
64%
Juventus U20 or Corinthians U20
72%
Draw or Corinthians U20
64%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
15%
Corinthians U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
70%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
33%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
12%
Corinthians U20 1+ goals
70%
Corinthians U20 2+ goals
34%
Corinthians U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.18 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Juventus U20 defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
36%
level
28%
Corinthians U20 scores more
36%

Juventus U20 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
T. Lisboa
62'
A. Luiz
83'
G. G. da Silva Filho L.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Juventus U20 0–3 Corinthians U20

Corinthians U20 beat Juventus U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: T. Lisboa (37'), A. Luiz (62'), G. G. da Silva Filho L. (83').

The match was played at Estádio Conde Rodolfo Crespi in São Paulo, São Paulo.