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Juventus U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Juventus U20
Juventus U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Bologna U20
Bologna U20
11/9/2024Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 11Juventus Training Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Juventus U2042%
×Draw26%
Bologna U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juventus U20
1.45
Bologna U20
1.22

Juventus U20 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Juventus U20
1.79
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Juventus U20
1.34
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Juventus U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Juventus U20 or draw
68%
Juventus U20 or Bologna U20
74%
Draw or Bologna U20
58%

Winning margin

Juventus U20 wins by 2+
20%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Juventus U20 1+ goals
77%
Juventus U20 2+ goals
42%
Juventus U20 3+ goals
18%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
70%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
34%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juventus U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U20 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U20 attack 1.79 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.45

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Juventus U20 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Juventus U20 scores more
42%
level
26%
Bologna U20 scores more
32%

Juventus U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Juventus U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juventus U20 vs Bologna U20

Juventus U20 and Bologna U20 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Juventus Training Center in Vinovo.