Juventus U19 2–1 Young Boys U19: Result & Stats

Juventus U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Young Boys U19

Pablo Moreno 67'

João Serrão 9'

N. Maier 87'

10/2/2018

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Juventus Training Center (Vinovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Juventus U1956%

×Draw20%

Young Boys U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juventus U19Expected goals in this matchYoung Boys U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.46

Juventus U19

2.28

Young Boys U19

1.46

Juventus U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

2.47

creates per match

1.33

1.59

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Juventus U19

2.47

Young Boys U19

1.33

allows per match

Juventus U19

1.59

Young Boys U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juventus U19+0.00on par

Young Boys U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juventus U19 ↓

Young Boys U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Juventus U19 or draw

76%

Juventus U19 or Young Boys U19

80%

Draw or Young Boys U19

44%

Winning margin

Juventus U19 wins by 2+

34%

Young Boys U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Juventus U19 1+ goals

90%

Juventus U19 2+ goals

66%

Juventus U19 3+ goals

39%

Young Boys U19 1+ goals

77%

Young Boys U19 2+ goals

43%

Young Boys U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Juventus U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Young Boys U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juventus U19 at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Young Boys U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juventus U19 attack 2.47 + Young Boys U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.28

Young Boys U19 attack 1.33 + Juventus U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Juventus U19 scores more

56%

level

20%

Young Boys U19 scores more

24%

Juventus U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Juventus U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

João Serrão↳ M. Portanova

46'

S. Vladi← Breston Malula

63'

L. Bueche← S. Ballet

63'

R. Golliard← F. Mambimbi

67'

Pablo Moreno↳ M. Anzolin

68'

N. Francofonte← M. Portanova

68'

B. Morrone← C. Makoun

76'

N. Maier← Fabiano Pereira Andrade

81'

N. Frederiksen← N. Fagioli

81'

M. Pinelli← Pablo Moreno

84'

P. Gozzi Iweru← João Serrão

84'

T. Alonso← P. Schüpbach

87'

N. Maier↳ J. Kronig

Juventus

Young

1

Neuenschw

5

Hajrizi

4

A

Kronig

2

Muteba

6

Petignat

3

▼

Schüpbach

7

Tokam

8

▼

Malula

11

▼

Andrade

10

▼

Mambimbi

9

▼

Ballet

1

Loria

3

A

Anzolin

6

⚽

▼

Serrão

7

Fonseca

4

▼

Makoun

15

Capellini

18

A

▼

Portanova

11

▼

Fagioli

14

Caviglia

9

Petrelli

10

⚽

▼

Moreno

Manager: F. Baldini

68'▲N. Francofonte←▼M. Portanova

68'▲B. Morrone←▼C. Makoun

81'▲N. Frederiksen←▼N. Fagioli

81'▲M. Pinelli←▼Pablo Moreno

84'▲P. Gozzi Iweru←▼João Serrão

Juventus U19 substitutes

13Francofonte5Morrone20Frederiksen19Pinelli2Iweru12Siano16Meneghini

Manager: J. Magnin

46'▲S. Vladi←▼Breston Malula

63'▲L. Bueche←▼S. Ballet

63'▲R. Golliard←▼F. Mambimbi

76'▲N. Maier←▼Fabiano Pereira Andrade

84'▲T. Alonso←▼P. Schüpbach

Young Boys U19 substitutes

16Vladi17Bueche15Golliard14Maier19Alonso12Blum18Zbinden